CPDF (Level I) Certification . . .

You can achieve forecasting excellence by completing a 90 hour curriculum on the Principles and Best Practices in Demand Forecasting; 15 hours for an Instructor-led, computer -based hands-on  Workshop followed by six (6) self-paced, e-learning computer workshops combined with self study.

To register for a training workshop, visit the workshop registration page.

To register for the e-learning workshop exercises for certification after you have completed the CPDF (Level I) Training Workshop, complete  e-Learning Registration form.

Day 1

Time

Instructor-led Hands-on Workshop

8:30 Registration

 

9:00 AM 

Part 1 - Demand Forecasting in the Supply Chain

  • What is Demand Forecasting?
  • Demand Forecasting and the evolution of the supply chain
  • Who will use the forecast and what are their data needs?
  • Demand Forecasting as a structured process - the PEER model

 

Workshop 1: How to Quantify Drivers of Demand for Products and Services

 

Part II - Framing the Demand Forecasting Job

  • Data exploration - learning from actual examples
  • Judging the quality of data
  • Dealing with unusual events and outliers

 

Coffee/Tea Break

Part II - Framing the Demand Forecasting Job(Continued)

  • What are forecasting models?
  • Quantitative vs. qualitative approaches Evaluating forecasts and forecasting models
  • Demand integration and reconciling the final forecast

 

Computer Workshop 2: Exploring Trend and Seasonal Variation in Time Series. Cases: Ice Cream and Tourism Industry

 

Part III - How To Use Components of a Time Series

  • Moving averages for smoothing kinks out of data
  • Contrasting between centered and uncentered moving averages
  • What is the Ratio-to-Moving Average (RMA) method?
  • Creating additive and multiplicative seasonal factors
  • Creating projections with a decomposition technique
Readout of Workshops 1 and 2

 

PM

Lunch

Computer Workshop 3: Creating Projections with the RMA Decomposition Technique. Cases: Automobile and Energy Industry

 

Part IV - Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing Models

  • Why use Naive forecasting techniques
  • Types of smoothing weights
  • Forecasting profiles for exponential smoothing
  • Applying univariate time series techniques
  • Handling special events with exponential smoothing models
  • Creating scenario forecasts
  • Product life cycle and technique selection 

 

Computer Workshop 4: Forecasting With Short-term Forecasting Models. Cases: Ice Cream and Tourism Industry 

 

Coffee/Tea Break

 

Computer Workshop 4 (cont'd):  Creating Rolling Forecasts with Hold-out Samples

 

Readout of Workshops 3 and 4

Day 2

 

 

8:30 AM Recap of Day 1

 

Part V -   Measuring Forecast Accuracy

  • Basis of accuracy measurement: bias and precision
  • Forecasting errors vs. forecasting accuracy
  • Goodness of fit vs. forecasting performance
  • Costs of inaccurate forecasts
  • Waterfall charts and accuracy measurement 

 

Computer Workshop 5:  Root Cause Analysis and Exception Reporting. Case: Motorcycle Industry

 

 

Coffee/Tea Break

 

Part VI - Tracking Tools for Forecast Process Improvement

  • Ladder charts for monitoring forecast model results
  • Prediction-realization diagram and the business cycle
  • Prediction intervals for time series forecasts
  • Creating tracking signals - Trigg's tracking signal

 

Computer Workshop 6:  Creating a Time-phased Order Forecast for Customer Replenishment Planning

 

Readout of Workshops 5 and 6

 

PM

Lunch

 

Part VII - Practical Uses of Forecasting Modeling

  • Marketing - advertising and promotion planning
  • Sales - pricing and easticities
  • Operations -  safety stock and inventory planning
  • Finance - rolling forecasts for budgeting

 

Workshop 7: A Simulated Forecasting Work Cycle - Case: Consumer Electronics Industry

 

Coffee/Tea Break

Workshop 7 (cont'd)

 

Part VIII - Implementing a Forecasting and S&OP Process

  • Successful implementation strategies
  • Integration with the supply chain
  • Sales & Operations (S&OP) planning
  • Best-in-breed demand management 

 

  • Review and Open Questions
  • Workshop Takeaways
  • Closing Remarks

After you complete this two-day instructor-led workshop, and wish to earn CPDF (Level I) certification,, you will need to complete six (6) self-paced computer workshop exercises, re-enforcing the management principles, forecasting methods and best practices used by demand forecasters worldwide under the direction of a CPDF Team Leader. Upon completion of this phase your CPDF designation will help you stay competitive while enhancing your professionalism and career opportunities.

To register for the e-learning workshop exercises for certification, complete e-Learning Registration form.

Workshop

Self-paced, e-Learning Computer Workshops for CPDF (Level I) Certification

8

Establishing Data Sources for Demand Forecasting


9

Who Are the Users and How Can They Benefit from Your Forecasts?


10

Graphical Displays and Exploring Correlations Among Pairs of Related Variables

11

Interpreting Causal Models in Business Applications

12

Achieving Success With More Complex Models

13

Determining a Causal Relationship Between Sales and Advertising
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