CPDF I Certification . . .

You can achieve practical understanding of demand forecasing principles and best practices by completing a professional development workshop on the Principles and Best Practices in Demand Forecasting. This is a 15 hour Instructor-led, computer-based hands-on  Workshop . Upon completion you qualify to complete six (6) self-paced, e-learning computer workshops combined with self study.

To register for this industrial training workshop, visit the workshop registration page.

To register for the e-learning workshop exercises for a certification designation, after you need to have completed the CPDF I  Instructor-led Workshop first..

Day 1


Instructor-led Hands-on Workshop

  8:30 Registration


9:00 AM 

Part 1 - The Demand Forecasting Function in the Supply Chain

  • What is Demand Forecasting?
  • Demand Forecasting and the evolution of the supply chain
  • Who will use the forecast and what are their data needs?
  • Demand Forecasting as a structured process - the PEER model



Workshop 1: How to Identify Drivers of Demand for New and Existing Products/Services



Part II - Framing the Demand Forecasting Function

  • Data exploration and predictive visualization - learning from actual examples
  • Judging the quality of data
  • Dealing with unusual events and outliers



Coffee/Tea Break


Part II - Framing the Demand Forecasting Function(Continued)

  • What are forecasting models?
  • Quantitative vs. qualitative approaches Evaluating forecasts and forecasting models
  • Demand integration and reconciling the final forecast



Computer Workshop 2: Exploring Trend and Seasonal Variation in Historical Data. Cases: Consumer Product (CPG Industry) amd Services (Tourism Industry)



Part III - How To Use Components of a Time Series

  • Moving averages for smoothing kinks out of data
  • Contrasting between centered and uncentered moving averages
  • What is the Ratio-to-Moving Average (RMA) method?
  • Creating additive and multiplicative seasonal factors
  • Creating projections with a decomposition technique
    Readout of Workshops 1 and 2





Computer Workshop 3: Creating seasonal adjustments and exploratory forecasts with the RMA Decomposition method. Cases: Automobile and Energy Industry



Part IV - Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing Models

  • Why use Naive forecasting techniques
  • Types of smoothing weights
  • Forecasting profiles for exponential smoothing
  • Applying univariate time series techniques
  • Handling special events with exponential smoothing models
  • Creating scenario forecasts
  • Product life cycle and technique selection 



Computer Workshop 4: Forecasting With Trend/Seasonal models. Cases: Ice Cream and Tourism Data 



Coffee/Tea Break



Computer Workshop 4 (cont'd):  Creating Rolling Forecasts with Hold-out Samples



Readout of Workshops 3 and 4

Day 2



  8:30 AM Recap of Day 1



Part V -   How To Measure Forecast Accuracy

  • Basis of accuracy measurement: bias and precision
  • Forecasting errors vs. forecasting accuracy
  • Overcoming the myth of the MAPE
  • Goodness of fit vs. forecasting performance
  • Costs of inaccurate forecasts
  • Waterfall charts and accuracy measurement 



Computer Workshop 5:  Root Cause Analysis and Exception Reporting. Case: Motorcycle Industry



Coffee/Tea Break



Part VI - Graphical Tools for Forecast Process Improvement

  • Ladder charts for monitoring forecast model results
  • Prediction-realization diagram and the business cycle
  • Prediction intervals and predictive visualization for time series forecasts
  • Creating tracking signals - Trigg's tracking signal



Computer Workshop 6:  How to Visually Track and Monitor Forecasting Performance


Readout of Workshops 5 and 6






Part VII - Practical Uses of Forecast Modeling

  • Marketing - advertising and promotion planning
  • Sales - pricing and easticities
  • Operations -  safety stock and inventory planning
  • Finance - rolling forecasts for budgeting



Computer Workshop 7: Simulating a Demand Forecasting Work Cycle - Case: Consumer Electronics Industry



Coffee/Tea Break


Part VIII - Implementing a Demand Forecasting Process With an Integrated Business Planning Process

  • Successful implementation strategies
  • Integration with the supply chain
  • Sales & Operations (S&OP) planning
  • Best-in-breed demand management 
  • The GLOBL Case: Simulating a Forecasting Work Cycle


  • Review and Open Questions
  • Workshop Takeaways
  • Closing Remarks

After you complete this two-day instructor-led workshop, and wish to earn CPDF I certification,, you will need to complete six (6) self-paced computer workshop exercises, re-enforcing the management principles, forecasting methods and best practices used by demand forecasters worldwide under the direction of a CPDF Team Leader. Upon completion of this phase your CPDF designation will help you stay competitive while enhancing your professionalism and career opportunities.


Self-paced, e-Learning Computer Workshops for CPDF I Certification


Identifying Users for Demand Forecasts


Investigating Drivers of Demand for New and Existing Products/Services


Characterizing Demand Variation


Creating a Seasonal Decomposition and Using Seasonal Adjustments


Using ETS State Space Models for Trend/Seasonal Forecasting


Analyzing Forecasting Performance with Outlier-Resistant Forecast Error Measurements
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